Archived copy of Session 4 as published under course outlines v0.1 and v0.2 (to 8 October 2026). Its content now lives in the current Session 4 lesson.
Session 04 PGPM 2026–27 1.5 hours Analysis

Beyond the Five Forces

Ecosystems, business models, and rivals who move back

Session 3 used the five forces to ask how much of the value an industry creates its members get to keep. The framework holds the rest of the world still: suppliers supply, buyers buy, and rivals are a level of intensity. Tesla does not sit still in those boxes. Its battery supplier was also an investor, it built its own charging network in an industry where building and running stations was unprofitable, and the incumbents it attacked sold through dealers who earned much of their profit servicing the kind of car Tesla meant to replace.

This session adds two lenses. Ecosystems and business models show where value is created around the product and who captures it. Game theory and competitor analysis treat rivals as players who anticipate and respond. Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie (1997) then ask the question that decides how far to trust either lens: how uncertain is the future you are planning for?

What this session answers

  1. 01Who captures the value in Tesla’s ecosystem, and which pieces of it are worth owning?
  2. 02How would an incumbent respond to Tesla, and could Tesla change the game before it did?
  3. 03Which of Tesla’s moves were big bets, options or no-regrets moves, and how uncertain was the future each was made for?

Facts come from the two Tesla cases and the readings, with page references. The payoffs in the game on this page are illustrative and are labelled as such; they show the logic, not Tesla’s accounts.

Carried forward · Sessions 2 and 3

What the five forces leave out

Session 3 built the five forces properly and rated the US auto industry with them. It ended on two loose threads, and a third comes from the textbook’s critique of the framework. Nothing below re-teaches the forces; it starts where they stop.

Session 3 · five (six) forces

Complements raise value. Who keeps it?

Rothaermel counts complements as a sixth force; Porter says they act through the five. Both agree a complement can grow demand. Neither tells you how the extra value is split between Tesla and the firms whose products make a Tesla worth more. That split is where this session begins.

Session 3 · the hand-off

A rival that could also be a customer

Musk said Tesla was “open” to other carmakers using its Supercharger network if they shared the cost of usage (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 14). On a five-forces diagram a rival can only appear as rivalry. Here it could also pay for, and depend on, a complement Tesla owns.

Grant (2018) · the critique

Structure without moves

The central criticism of the five forces, Grant writes, is that they ignore competitive interaction: rivalry becomes a variable linking structure to profit, not decisions by firms that anticipate each other (p. 91). And industry explains less than 20% of the variation in firms’ return on assets (p. 84). Industry analysis still matters; it is not the whole picture.

The trap this session sets

Tesla’s history is easy to read as a string of brilliant moves, because we know how it turned out. Game theory and Courtney’s levels of uncertainty both force the harder question: what did each move look like before anyone knew how the game would end, and what did the other players believe at the time?

Session 2 · still in play

The 2006 master plan published Tesla’s sequence of moves in advance: sports car, then an affordable car, then a cheaper one, plus zero-emission power (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 5). Session 2 read it as purpose. Today, read it as a signal to rivals, suppliers and investors.

Two readings · one strategic problem

Read with a question in mind

How much uncertainty remains after analysis?

Separate what better research can resolve from residual uncertainty. A clear-enough future, a few alternative futures, a range of futures and true ambiguity require different analytical tools. Do not attach a precise probability merely because a spreadsheet requests one.

Then separate posture—shape, adapt or reserve the right to play—from moves—big bets, options and no-regrets actions. A small investment is not automatically an option: it must buy a meaningful future opportunity.

Reading task: write one observable signpost that would cause a move to expand, stop or change.

Can you change the game itself?

PARTS: players, added values, rules, tactics and scope. Map customers, suppliers, competitors and complementors; ask what changes if a participant disappears.

Your application: choose an EV ecosystem participant. Propose an invitation, contract change, information release or change in the market boundary. Draw who might benefit and who could respond defensively. This is a proposal to test, not a prediction about the case.

The Right Game · publisher record ↗

A game-changing move is also an uncertain bet

A charging-access proposal may attract new participants while making a new demand forecast necessary. Write both sides: the game element being changed and the uncertainty governing the commitment. A persuasive strategic move needs a plausible response from other players and a way to learn.

Carry that logic into the payoff game, competitor profile and uncertainty exercises already on this page.

Beyond the five forces · Grant (2018), ch. 4

Complements, ecosystems and who captures the value

Grant starts from a simple asymmetry. A substitute lowers the value of a product; a complement raises it. A printer is useless without ink cartridges, a car without fuel. Once you accept that, the strategic question is no longer whether complements matter but how the value they create is shared between the firms that supply the pieces (Grant, 2018, p. 86).

01 · Complements

The split decides the profit

In 1990s video games, independent developers supplied most of the software and most of the consumer value, yet Nintendo took most of the system’s profit because it controlled the operating system and the making of cartridges. In personal computers the opposite happened: IBM’s open architecture let Windows become the proprietary standard, and the PC drifted towards a commodity (p. 86).

Grant’s rule: keep your own product monopolised, differentiated and in short supply, and encourage competition, commoditisation and excess capacity among your complements (p. 87). Apple’s ownership of iOS lets it choose which apps reach the iPhone and take 30% of their revenue; Nestlé lost control of Nespresso capsules once its patents stopped protecting them.

02 · Ecosystems

Value migrates; look for the bottleneck

A business ecosystem is the community of organisations, institutions and individuals that affect the enterprise, bound by codependence and always evolving. Value moves between its parts with technology, regulation and customer preferences, and firms can push it. The prize is a bottleneck: an activity that creates significant customer value and that the firm can dominate (Grant, 2018, p. 88, drawing on Jacobides).

  • Be the guardian of quality (Intel Inside).
  • Be irreplaceable; keep others replaceable (Apple’s “supply chain atomisation”).
  • Ride shifts in customer needs.
  • Redefine the value chain (IKEA moved assembly to the customer).

03 · Platforms

Network effects and winner-take-all

In digital systems, competition is often between platforms, the interfaces that link the parts. Complementors favour the platform with the most users and users favour the one with the most complements. That loop is the main source of winner-take-all markets, where the leader can take almost the whole profit pool (Grant, 2018, pp. 85–87).

Rothaermel defines a platform as a business that enables value-creating interactions between external producers and consumers, and names four roles in its ecosystem: owner, providers, producers and consumers (2023, pp. 282–283). Session 8 takes platforms further.

The value-capture test · Grant (2018), pp. 90–91

How much would the network lose if you left it?

The value capture model sets bounds on what a firm can take from its network of transacting parties. The ceiling is the value the network would lose if the firm walked away; the floor is what the firm could add to an alternative network. Investments with competitive intent raise the value the firm adds; actions with persuasive intent change how much the others are willing to concede. Ask it of Tesla and of a battery maker: which one does the other need more?

Activity · ecosystem map

Which pieces of Tesla’s ecosystem are bottlenecks?

Eight pieces of the ecosystem around a Tesla, as the cases describe them up to about 2019. Apply Grant’s two tests to each: does it create significant value for the customer, and could one player dominate it because it is scarce or hard to substitute? A piece that passes both is a bottleneck: worth owning, or worth making sure a rival does not own. The map changes as you decide. Then compare your read with the case evidence and with what Tesla actually did.

0 of 8 marked as bottlenecks

Business models · Grant (2018); Rothaermel (2024)

Business models: the logic of getting paid

A model is a simplified description of something real, so a business model is a simplified description of a business: its core logic for creating value. Grant quotes David Teece’s definition, “the manner by which the business enterprise delivers value to customers, entices customers to pay for value, and converts those payments to profit” (Grant, 2018, p. 88). Grant leaves open whether a business model is anything more than a strategy under another name. He uses it for one job: designing how a firm exploits the opportunities in its ecosystem (pp. 88–89).

Rothaermel puts it more bluntly: the business model is where strategy turns into action, and it explains how the firm intends to make money. He asks four questions of any model: why it creates value (revenue and cost models), what activities deliver the offer, who performs them, and how the activities are linked (2023, pp. 476–477).

The canvas · Grant (2018), p. 89

The Business Model Canvas treats the firm as four blocks. A business model is one integrated set of choices across them; mapping it lets you try alternative configurations.

Infrastructure

activities, resources, partners

Customers

segments, channels, relationships

Offer

the value proposition

Financial viability

revenues, costs, profit

Eight common revenue logics

Paraphrased from Rothaermel (2024, pp. 478–480). Real firms combine them.

Razor–razor blades

Sell the base product cheaply, even at a loss, and earn on the complement it needs (Gillette, HP ink).

Subscription

Pay for access for a period, whether or not you use it (Office 365, Netflix).

Pay-as-you-go

Pay only for what you consume (utilities, cloud computing).

Freemium

Basic version free or cheap; charge for premium features or add-ons.

Ultra-low cost

A bare basic service at a low price, with extras sold à la carte (Ryanair).

Wholesale

Sell to retailers at a fixed price; they set the final price and keep the margin.

Agency

An agent sells on the producer’s behalf for a set percentage commission (app stores).

Bundling

Sell together, at a discount, products whose demand is negatively correlated (Office suite).

Tesla against the industry recipe

Six business-model choices. Read across each row: what the industry did, what Tesla did, and what that did to the ecosystem around the car.

Swipe the table sideways to see all four columns.

ChoiceThe industry recipeTeslaWhat it did to the ecosystem
Distribution Franchised dealers; decades of dealer lobbying produced laws limiting how and where makers could sell (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, Exhibit 2). Company-owned showrooms in malls, staff paid no commission, orders in store or online (p. 8). In 2019 it closed all but a few of its 100-plus stores; most Model 3 orders were online (p. 12). Removed the intermediary that, a 2016 study found, steered buyers away from EVs (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 6).
After-sales Dealers made 45–60% of their profits from service and parts (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 5). Many fixes sent over the internet; 76 US service centres, about half beside stores (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 8; Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 14). Shrank a profit pool. In Tesla’s own accounts, services and other had a negative share of gross profit every year from 2017 to 2019 (Exhibit 11a).
The car after sale Fixed at purchase. Connectivity sold as packages: GM OnStar at $24.99 a month after a six-month trial (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 9). Software updates improve acceleration and braking after sale (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 14). Full self-driving and autopilot capability priced at $8,000 from 2016 (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 9). Moved value from hardware to software, the layer PwC warned carmakers could lose to become “dumb pipes on wheels” (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 9).
Energy Fuel is someone else’s business. Free Supercharging at the Model S launch (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 8); later $0.24 per kWh (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 14). SolarCity bought in 2016; Musk pitched “an electric car, a Powerwall and a solar roof” as the integrated future (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 10). Turned a missing complement into part of the product. Energy generation and storage was 5–10% of revenue in 2017–2021 (Exhibit 11c).
Regulation Emissions rules are a compliance cost. Regulatory credits were 2.4%, 5.0% and 2.7% of revenue in 2019–2021, but 14.6%, 23.8% and 10.8% of gross profit (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, Exhibits 11a, 11c). An institution in the ecosystem became a margin source: almost pure profit, but one Tesla does not control.
The car as a platform — Master Plan, Part Deux: owners could add their self-driving car to a shared fleet. One analyst put an owner’s earnings at up to $6,900 a year after paying Tesla a 10% cut (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 14). Would make Tesla the owner of a two-sided platform, matching car owners with riders. Planned, not built, in the cases.

Serafeim & Migdal (2024) is abbreviated to page or exhibit numbers after its first mention in a row.

Read the table as a system

Each choice changes the ecosystem as well as the income statement. Direct sales took the dealer out of the ecosystem; over-the-air fixes shrank the service profit pool the dealer lived on; Superchargers made a missing complement part of the product. That is why the choices hang together, and why Session 1’s point about fit applies: copying one piece is easy, copying the set is not.

But single pieces do get copied

Customers could collect their Tesla from a store or have it delivered home, “an approach other manufacturers and dealers quickly mimicked” (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 8). Which of the six rows would an incumbent find easiest to copy, and which would it have to fight its own dealers to copy? Hold the answer for the competitor analysis below.

Activity · business-model sorter

Name the revenue logic

Six ways of making money from the car and what surrounds it, all from the cases. Match each to the closest of Rothaermel’s models, then check. Two of them sit between models; the feedback says which second answer is defensible and why.

0 of 6 checked

Competitive interaction · Grant (2018), pp. 91–95

Game theory: rivals who move back

A strategic situation is one of interdependence: what each player should do depends on what it expects the others to do. Game theory gives that situation a structure by asking four questions: who the players are, what options each has, what each player earns from every combination of options, and in what sequence the decisions are made (Grant, 2018, p. 91).

Sequence · simultaneous games

Choose without seeing the other’s choice

When players commit before they can observe each other, as with capacity booked a year ahead, you reason by best responses: for each move the rival might make, what is my best reply? A pair of moves from which neither player can gain by changing alone is a Nash equilibrium (Grant, 2018, p. 93). It need not be good for either player.

Sequence · sequential games

Move first, and reason backwards

When the second mover sees the first move, the first mover works backwards: for each move I could make, how will the rival reply, and which of those outcomes do I prefer? Moving first is worth something only if the move is visible and hard to undo. A price cut that can be reversed next quarter is not a first move; it is an announcement.

The prisoners’ dilemma · p. 93

Grant’s example: Coca-Cola and Pepsi each choose a big or small advertising budget. Both would earn more with small budgets, but each fears the other will exploit its restraint, so both spend big. The equilibrium is worse for both, and any agreement to restrain is unstable because each gains by cheating. Two escapes: turn a one-off game into a repeated one, or change the payoffs through deterrence.

Look for the same structure in the cases. Charging stations were unprofitable to build, and different stakeholders argued over who should pay; BMW and Nissan chose to back one shared fast-charging network, EVgo, open to every EV driver (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 7). Which escape from the dilemma is that?

Five ways to change the outcome · pp. 91–94

Cooperation
Co-opetition: every relationship mixes the two. Coke and Pepsi still cooperate on policy for soda sales in schools.
Deterrence
Impose costs on moves you do not want. Only credible threats deter: a price war often hurts the incumbent more than the entrant; excess capacity is more convincing.
Commitment
Eliminate your own options so that others believe you. Airbus advertised the A380 heavily before the design was finished.
Changing the game
In June 2014 Tesla offered its patents to competitors, betting that a bigger EV market would outweigh any lost advantage (p. 94).
Signalling
Selective communication meant to shape how rivals read your moves. Threats are credible when backed by reputation; preannounced price changes can also invite cooperation.

Tesla · commitment and signal

Panasonic agreed to fund 30–40% of the $5 billion Gigafactory 1 (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 9): a visible, sunk, shared investment that is hard to walk back. The case also reports one reading of Musk’s 2018 pay plan as a signal rather than pay: “They were about signaling a credible commitment to Tesla’s purpose: to become a clean energy giant” (p. 10). Does a pay plan remove any options? A factory does.

How far to trust it · pp. 94–95

Game theory is rigorous, but it gives clear predictions only in stylised situations; with realistic detail it often yields no equilibrium or several. Grant judges it better at explaining the past than predicting the future. Its use is to structure the situation and show how to change the game. Deterrence and preemption get a full session in the sustaining-advantage extension.

Activity · payoff matrix

Incumbent: launch EVs now or wait? Tesla: cut price or hold?

Two players, two options each. Pick any cell to see whether either player would want to move away from it. Then solve the game, and change one thing at a time: the order of moves, Tesla’s cost position, and the emissions rules. The payoffs are an illustrative profit index (higher is better), chosen to make the logic visible; they are not figures from the cases.

Order of moves

Tesla’s cost position

After: Tesla expected battery cells at $100 per kWh by the end of 2018, against the $145 GM paid LG Chem for the Bolt (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 13). A lower cost makes a price cut pay for Tesla.

Emissions rules

Penalised: governments tighten fleet emissions limits and announce bans on new combustion cars (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, Exhibits 4 and 9), so a carmaker without EVs loses money whatever Tesla does.

Tesla: Cut price
Tesla: Hold price
Incumbent:Launch EVs now
Incumbent:Wait

Each cell: incumbent’s payoff, then Tesla’s. A ring marks the equilibrium once solved.

Pick a cell, or press Solve the game.
Try this sequence. Solve the simultaneous game before the Gigafactory. Switch to Tesla first: why does a first move help Tesla here, and why would a mere price announcement not do it? Then switch on the Gigafactory and try all three orders. Finally penalise waiting. In the cases, GM planned 20 EV models by 2023 and Ford $11 billion for 16 EVs and 24 hybrids by 2022 (Sull & Reavis, 2019, p. 7). Which version of the game were they playing?

Competitor analysis · Grant (2018), pp. 95–98

Competitor analysis: get inside the rival’s head

In a concentrated industry the behaviour of a few close rivals dominates the environment. Game theory supplies the formal apparatus, but Grant argues that for most decisions a less formal, evidence-based prediction of what rivals will do is enough (2018, p. 95). Competitive intelligence serves three purposes: forecast rivals’ strategies, predict their reactions to your moves, and work out how to influence their behaviour. The boundary with industrial espionage is not always clear (pp. 95–96).

The problem is usually too much information, not too little. Porter’s four-part framework says what to look for. Each part below feeds the same two predictions: what will the competitor do next, and how will it respond to us?

01

Future goals

Financial or market goals? A rival chasing share fights harder than one chasing profit, and one free of profit discipline, such as a state-owned firm, is hardest of all. The further performance falls short of its goals, the likelier a change of strategy, perhaps of management (p. 97).

02

Current strategy

How is it competing now? Look at what the company says and at what it does, and reconcile the two (p. 96). A forecast of change starts from an accurate picture of the present.

03

Assumptions

What its managers believe about the industry and about themselves. These beliefs are stable and converge across an industry into a shared “recipe” that can blind a whole industry. British and US motorcycle makers dismissed light Japanese bikes in the 1960s; by 1980 BSA and Triumph had stopped production and Harley-Davidson was struggling to survive (p. 97).

04

Resources & capabilities

Strengths and weaknesses decide how serious a challenge or a reply can be. Do not start a price war with a rival sitting on a cash pile; aim at weaknesses it will find hard to answer (p. 98). Session 5 builds the tools for this part.

Activity · competitor profile

Profile GM as Tesla’s strategists might have in 2018

Eight pieces of evidence from the cases. File each under one of Porter’s four components and check. Some fit two; the feedback says which. Then use the whole profile to predict GM’s response to the Model 3.

0 of 8 checked

Your prediction

Given the profile, what was GM’s most likely response to Tesla’s mass-market push?

Strategy under uncertainty · Courtney, Kirkland & Viguerie (1997)

How uncertain is the future you are planning for?

Courtney, Kirkland and Viguerie see one error behind most strategy made under uncertainty: treating it as binary. Either the future is certain enough for a point forecast, which pushes managers to bury uncertainty inside their cash flows, or it is unknowable, which tempts them to drop analysis and go on instinct. Both are dangerous (pp. 2–3). Even in uncertain markets, some trends are clear and many unknowns are knowable with the right analysis. What is left after the best possible analysis is residual uncertainty, and it comes in four levels (p. 4).

The level matters because it decides which tools work. The standard kit of market research, competitor cost and capacity analysis, the value chain, the five forces and discounted cash flow suits level 1 (p. 10). It misleads above it.

“Shaping strategies can fail, so the best companies supplement their shaping bets with options that allow them to change course quickly if necessary.”
Courtney, Kirkland & Viguerie (1997), p. 20

The article summarises this argument in its exhibits on how to use the four levels, the three postures and the portfolio of actions. This page restates their ideas in words and cards; read the exhibits themselves in the course pack.

LEVEL 1

A clear-enough future

One forecast is precise enough to point to a single direction; the residual uncertainty does not change the decision. An airline answering a low-cost entrant at its hub can know segment sizes, the entrant’s costs and capacity (pp. 4–5).

Tools: the standard kit and a DCF.

LEVEL 2

Alternate futures

A few discrete outcomes; analysis can suggest probabilities but not pick the winner, and the best strategy depends on which occurs. Pending legislation is one source; another is a rival’s capacity decision in an oligopoly (pp. 5–6).

Tools: discrete scenarios, a valuation per scenario, decision analysis, trigger variables to watch (pp. 10–11).

LEVEL 3

A range of futures

The outcome can fall anywhere on a continuum bounded by a few key variables, with no natural scenarios: market penetration somewhere between 10% and 30%, say, or the cost of an unproven technology (pp. 7–8).

Tools: a few distinct scenarios (no more than four or five) spanning the probable range; test robustness (pp. 11–12).

LEVEL 4

True ambiguity

Several uncertainties interact so that not even the range can be identified. Rare, and transitional: Russia in 1992, consumer multimedia in the 1990s. Such situations drift towards level 3 or 2 (pp. 8–9).

Tools: list what is known and knowable, analogies, indicators, and what you would have to believe (pp. 12–13).

Three postures · pp. 13–15

  • Shape. Drive the industry towards a new structure of your own devising.
  • Adapt. Take the structure and its evolution as given; win by recognising and responding to developments fast.
  • Reserve the right to play. A special form of adapting, only at levels 2–4: incremental investments now that give a privileged position in information, cost or relationships, so you can wait until uncertainty falls.

Three kinds of move · pp. 15–16

  • Big bets. Large commitments, such as major capital investments or acquisitions, that pay off big in some scenarios and lose big in others. Shapers usually need them.
  • Options. Modest first investments that secure the upside and limit the downside: pilots, limited joint ventures, licences on an alternative technology.
  • No-regrets moves. Moves that pay off whatever happens: cost cuts, competitive intelligence, skills, and sometimes even capacity or market entry.

A shaper raises uncertainty

FedEx entered a stable, level 1 delivery industry and created level 3 uncertainty for itself and level 2 for UPS: would overnight delivery work, and would UPS have to match it? Its big bets took it to the brink of bankruptcy in its first two years, then reshaped the industry (pp. 17–19).

Credibility can replace cash

At levels 3 and 4 a shaper needs the credibility to coordinate other players around its preferred outcome more than deep pockets. Netscape shaped browser standards on its leaders’ credibility (p. 24).

The right to play, or to lose?

At level 4 it is hard to tell whether small investments reserve the right to play or only the right to lose. Prefer cheap options, and re-evaluate them whenever an important uncertainty clears, at least every six months (p. 25).

Activity · uncertainty classifier

What level of residual uncertainty is this?

Six decisions from the two cases, each seen from the date it was made. Ask what would remain unknown after the best possible analysis, and whether the possible outcomes are one, a few, a range, or not even a range. The boundary between levels 3 and 4 is a judgement; the feedback says when two answers are defensible.

0 of 6 checked

Case application · Serafeim & Migdal (2024); Sull & Reavis (2019)

Tesla’s moves, classified: posture and portfolio

Courtney’s FedEx story has a Tesla shape. In 2003 the industry looked stable: carmakers spent three to five years and hundreds of millions or billions of dollars on each platform, sold through dealer networks, and ran on an infrastructure of petrol stations (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, pp. 3–4). Musk’s reading in 2003 was that the industry ran on two false premises: that a compelling electric car could not be built, and that no one would buy one (p. 4).

A shaper in a level 1 industry raises uncertainty, for itself and for the incumbents. Classify each move below by the posture it served and the kind of move it was, as it looked when it was made. One incumbent move is included for contrast.

The financial backdrop · Serafeim & Migdal (2024)

  • 2003–2010: $290 million of losses on $150 million of revenue (p. 7).
  • End of 2009: under $500,000 of operating cash (p. 6).
  • End of 2016: $1.4 billion of free cash, burning about $500 million a quarter (p. 10).
  • FY2021: EBIT margin 12.1%, above GM’s 9.0% and Toyota’s 8.1% (Exhibit 11b).

Activity · posture and move

Shape, adapt or reserve? Big bet, option or no-regrets?

Eight moves, in date order. Pick one answer in each row, then check. The score counts each row separately.

0 of 8 checked

The pattern

Tesla’s portfolio is a shaper’s. The early moves were options and no-regrets moves that kept it alive and taught it the market; the big bets went into the ecosystem pieces that passed the bottleneck test: charging and battery supply. Note when the biggest bets came. Tesla bought SolarCity in November 2016, the year it ended with $1.4 billion of free cash while burning about $500 million a quarter (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 10). FedEx’s big bets took it to the brink in its first two years (Courtney et al., 1997, pp. 18–19).

The incumbents’ portfolio

By 2018 the incumbents were buying positions as well as cars: GM a 9% stake in Lyft, Toyota talks with Panasonic on a battery joint venture, BMW a $1.1 billion contract with CATL for a battery factory in Europe (Sull & Reavis, 2019, pp. 7, 10). Which of these reserve the right to play, and which only the right to lose? What trigger variable would tell you, and how often would you look?

Video · miscellaneous videos on Steve Jobs

Watch: Steve Jobs on rivals, bets and advantage

The course outline pairs this session with videos on Steve Jobs. The three below are the Jobs videos listed in the course textbook’s instructor resources, Rothaermel’s supplementary lecture slides. Each loads YouTube’s privacy-enhanced player only when you press play. The questions are prompts for watching with today’s tools, not summaries of what is said.

Rivals and complementors

Steve Jobs and Bill Gates: the 2007 interview

Two founders on one stage. Note each point where one firm’s products make the other’s more valuable, and each point where they compete. Which of Grant’s five behaviours do you hear: cooperation, deterrence, commitment, changing the game, signalling?

Listed in Rothaermel’s chapter 4 slides. Third-party upload. Open on YouTube

Deciding without knowing

Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford Commencement Address

Jobs tells his career as a series of decisions taken before he knew how they would turn out. For each one, decide what level of uncertainty he faced, and whether he was making a big bet, buying an option or waiting.

Stanford’s own channel; listed in Rothaermel’s chapter 7 slides. Open on YouTube

Competitor analysis, from the other side

Steve Jobs in 1980: rare presentation footage

Sit in an incumbent’s chair. From what Jobs presents, write Apple’s goals, current strategy, assumptions and capabilities in one line each. What would you have predicted Apple would do next, and which of your own assumptions might have blinded you?

Listed in Rothaermel’s chapter 4 slides. Third-party upload. Open on YouTube

Third-party uploads can be taken down. If one will not play here, try its YouTube link, and mention it in class.

Go deeper

Interactive decks on this topic

Four earlier decks cover parts of this ground. All were built for other course numberings, so the session numbers in their own titles differ from this page’s.

Closest match · 2-year MBA Beyond the Five Forces: Ecosystems, Game Theory & Ambiguity The same three ideas run on Nvidia: an ecosystem-moat calculator for CUDA, a three-round capacity game, and Courtney’s levels and postures mapped onto the AI-chip market, ending in a ten-round gauntlet. Built for the 2-year MBA, where it is Session 8 (its browser title reads “Industry Structure and Firm Strategy”). Its 2025–26 updates come from press reports, as the deck itself warns; check them before you cite. Open the deck → Business models · 2-year MBA Creating Competitive Advantage: The Patagonia Case Its last part, on circular business models, contrasts make–use–waste with make–use–repair–resell through Patagonia’s Worn Wear, with a small growth simulator. Built for the 2-year MBA as Session 11; the rest of it previews this course’s Patagonia sessions, from Session 5 on. Open the deck → Platforms · 2-year MBA Business Strategy, Innovation & Platforms From pipelines to platforms and network effects, with Netflix, Reliance Jio and Nvidia, plus an innovation CEO simulator. Listed as Session 13 of the 2-year MBA; its own header reads Session 09, Managing Technology & Innovation, so it also previews this course’s Session 8. Open the deck → Platforms · earlier 1-year deck Session 7: Business Strategy, Innovation & Platforms The earlier 1-year version of the platforms material: platform strategy and network effects, Netflix and Reliance Jio, and the “Innovate or Die” CEO simulator. Built as Session 7 in the earlier numbering. Open the deck →

For class

Discussion questions

Come with a written answer to the first two. The others are for the room.

  1. 01

    Tesla built its Supercharger network itself and kept it for Tesla drivers; BMW and Nissan backed EVgo’s fast chargers, open to every EV driver (Sull & Reavis, 2019, pp. 7, 14). Use the bottleneck test and the value-capture test: which choice lets its owner capture more value, and which grows the EV market faster? On what terms should Tesla open its network, and to whom?

  2. 02

    Build the competitor profile for an incumbent other than GM, using only the cases. Predict its response to the Model 3, and name the one piece of evidence that would most change your prediction.

  3. 03

    Regulatory credits were 2.4% of Tesla’s revenue in 2019 but 14.6% of its gross profit. Where in the ecosystem does that margin come from, and what happens to it as the incumbents’ own EV sales grow?

  4. 04

    Grant says game theory explains the past better than it predicts the future. Explain the 2014 patent offer with game theory. Then say what, if anything, game theory could have told Tesla about it in advance.

  5. 05

    One reading in the case calls Musk’s 2018 pay plan a signal of credible commitment. In Grant’s sense a commitment removes options. Which options did the pay plan remove, and which did the Gigafactory remove?

  6. 06

    In 2024 Musk said he wanted about 25% voting control before growing Tesla into a leader in AI and robotics (Serafeim & Migdal, 2024, p. 15). What level of uncertainty does that business face, and what posture and portfolio of moves would Courtney recommend for it?

Apply · challenge · revise

Game studio: change one PART, anticipate a reply

Fictional classroom scenario: an EV charging venture is negotiating with vehicle makers and site owners. Choose one proposal. The feedback identifies a primary PARTS lever and a counter-move to investigate; multiple effects can coexist.

1 · Make the move

Make a choice, then examine its consequences.

2 · Set a learning trigger

Make a choice, then examine its consequences.

3 · Write an option, not a wish

4 · Red-team the response

Bring the evidence into the room

One decision, two rounds

Case round · 12 minutes

Use the 2024 Tesla case to identify a concrete ecosystem move. Classify its primary PARTS lever, identify one complementor who could also compete, and use the case to support a rival’s likely incentives.

Discussion · 5 minutes

Apply the same method to one Steve Jobs video below. Separate a memorable line from evidence of a strategic commitment. What would make the promise credible to a supplier or rival?

Retrieve · explain · retry

Can you use the readings?

Retrieve the reading lenses before you use them in the case. These are concept checks, not a model case answer.

1. A rival can also be a complementor when…
2. Two clearly defined regulatory outcomes remain unresolved. The best first lens is…
3. What makes a pilot an option rather than simply a small loss?

Your score will appear after you check.

Knowledge check

Ten questions

Answer before you look. Each answer explains itself, and the explanation matters more than the score.

0 / 0 correct

Preparation

Readings for Session 4

Readings and cases are available through the course pack.

Required · V0.2 game-theory reading

Brandenburger, A. M., & Nalebuff, B. J. (1995). The Right Game: Use Game Theory to Shape Strategy. Harvard Business Review. Publisher record ↗

Bring a PARTS proposal and one credible response from another player. Connect your proposal to an uncertainty signpost.

Required · the article

Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy under uncertainty. Harvard Business Review, 75(6).

Read it all. Page numbers on this page refer to the 27-page hbr.org print in the course pack, not to the magazine’s pagination.

Required · the case

Serafeim, G., & Migdal, A. (2024). Elon Musk at Tesla (HBS No. 9-123-044, rev. June 27, 2024). Harvard Business School Publishing.

Carried over from Sessions 2 and 3. Reread pp. 5–13 for Tesla’s moves and Exhibits 11a–11c and 12a for the numbers.

Supplementary · historical companion case

Sull, D., & Reavis, C. (2019). Tesla’s entry into the U.S. auto industry (No. 18-186). MIT Sloan School of Management.

Reread pp. 6–14: competitors’ EV plans, charging, connectivity, mobility services, the Gigafactory and Tesla’s sales and service model. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 3.0.

Textbook · chapter 4

Grant, R. M. (2018). Contemporary strategy analysis (10th ed.). Wiley. Chapter 4, Further topics in industry and competitive analysis, pp. 83–106.

This session’s title and topics follow the chapter’s sections: beyond the five forces, then game theory and competitor analysis. Page numbers on this page are from the 10th edition; the 11th edition’s Indian adaptation keeps the same chapter.

Further · platforms and business models

Rothaermel, F. T. (2024). Strategic management (6th ed.). McGraw Hill. Section 7.5, Platform strategy, pp. 281–286; section 12.3, Business models, pp. 476–480.

The source of the platform roles and the eight revenue logics on this page.

Video

Miscellaneous videos on Steve Jobs: the three in the Watch section above.

Watch at least one before class, with its question in mind.

Carried forward

Porter, M. E. (2008). The five competitive forces that shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 86(1), 78–93.

Porter, M. E. (1996). What is strategy? Harvard Business Review, 74(6), 61–78.