03 / Worked example
India’s electric two-wheeler industry.
A compact walkthrough showing how the six questions read in sequence — not a substitute for a full current-market study. Dates and definitions are stated explicitly, because mixing calendar-year and financial-year data is a common analytical error.
Decision question
Should a well-capitalised mobility company enter or expand in India's electric two-wheeler (e-2W) industry over 2026–2030, and which positions in the value chain offer the best combination of growth, sustainable economics and strategic fit?
WHAT?Arena and growth
India remained the world's second-largest electric two-wheeler market in CY2025 (IEA, 2026), while SIAM reported 2.17 crore total domestic two-wheeler sales in FY2025–26 (SIAM, 2026). These two statistics use different periods and cannot be divided directly to infer penetration — the disciplined response is to obtain matched-period numerator and denominator data before drawing any conclusion.
WHO?Customers and demand
A useful segmentation separates urban commuters, family scooter users, delivery and fleet operators, students and young professionals, premium technology buyers, and semi-urban or rural customers — each with different utilisation, charging access, financing constraints and service expectations. Total-cost-of-ownership economics, not sticker price alone, often explain adoption.
HOW?Industry economics
A complete economic map spans vehicle assembly, cells and battery packs, power electronics, software, distribution, financing, insurance, charging, service and spares, resale, and recycling — with revenue and operating profit estimated separately for each stage, since the largest revenue pool is rarely the largest profit pool.
WHO WINS?Competition
A useful strategic-group map separates established manufacturers with large physical distribution and service networks from EV-native challengers with software-led architectures, plus a long tail of smaller players. The live question is not which group is “better” in general, but which capabilities matter most as the industry moves from early adoption toward scale.
WHAT CHANGES?Policy, technology and supply chain
India's PM E-DRIVE scheme supports roughly 24.79 lakh eligible electric two-wheelers (Ministry of Heavy Industries, 2026). The rigorous question is not “is there a subsidy?” but how the scheme's exact terminal date and vehicle-level eligibility change effective purchase price, adoption and manufacturer economics — alongside cell chemistry, battery-management systems and localisation depth.
WHAT NEXT?Three plausible scenarios
Scale acceleration (improving economics and financing lift conversion), gradual coexistence (EVs grow in favourable urban use-cases while ICE holds elsewhere), and consolidation shock (price pressure or policy shifts compress weak players) imply different winners and different early-warning signposts — rising matched-period penetration, stable non-urban ICE demand, or dealer and warranty stress, respectively.
Illustrative recommendation
The industry merits selective participation, not indiscriminate entry. A new entrant should avoid a me-too scooter proposition and enter only with a clear wedge — material cost advantage, a defined customer use case, differentiated technology, proprietary distribution, fleet economics, or a service/finance model that improves customer lifetime economics. An incumbent should treat the vehicle as one element of a system spanning financing, service, software, battery lifecycle and resale. The recommendation stays contingent on matched-period penetration trends, acquisition economics, warranty costs, policy eligibility and service-network productivity — which become the monitoring dashboard.